As the website of the Ecosystem Modelling Lab at the Federal Research Center Pushchino Scientific Center for Biological Research RAS (FRC PSCBR RAS) reports, a set of mathematical models is being formed for predictive assessment of net carbon absorption in the main types of terrestrial ecosystems as part of the implementation of the key innovative government project. The set of models, being integrated with data from a ground-based monitoring and remote sensing system, will become an important element of the National system for monitoring carbon stock and greenhouse gas influx in the Russian Federation. The models used allow obtaining predictive estimates of the carbon budget of ecosystems under different land use scenarios and in case of potential climate change.
For key areas of forest ecosystems, forecast estimates of changes in the total ecosystem carbon stock were obtained for the period up to 2050 (in red) and for the period up to 2100 (in blue) while maintaining the current forest exploitation regime and with the introduction of a reserve regime (“control” option) with stable climate and under the predicted “extreme” climate change scenario.